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"GDP growth this year is expected at around 10%, CPI at 6% -7%." On July 3, the China Center for Economic Research of Beijing University held the 10th "China and World Economy" at the annual meeting, the Chinese Economic Research Professor Lu Feng pointed out.
     
In the first half of this year before the release of the data, economists forecast to start out one after another. In an interview with our reporter found that GDP10% increase this year to become the consensus of the majority.
     
Lu Feng's prediction on the Tsinghua University and Professor Li Daokui basically the same as forecast.
     
Lee Kwai Rice told reporters, "It now appears that China's economy has slowed down a doubt. The next step we have to guard against the risk of a major economy."
     
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission, former vice president of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research Fan-Zhang Huang in an interview with our reporter frankly, "compared to inflation, I am more worried about employment. Transition period because of the employment problem in China than in the West The country is much more serious. "
     
It appears that the crux of the matter is that China's economy is not already entered a downward spiral?
     
Macro-control even more confusing is that the world has entered a period of high inflation, China's inflation is also the beginning of this year reached a high of 8.7 percent. The economic downturn in the prevention and suppression of inflation, which is more important? Policy on how to deal with?
     
Early in April, 2008 the State Council, points for the first time, it is necessary to prevent the economy from overheating fast to curb inflation, but also to prevent the economic downturn. Prior to the central economic work conference set the tone for the two-prevention: that is the main worry too fast economic growth and inflation risks.
     
"Growth and inflation is a complex balance of the goal of maximizing the achievement of sustainable growth, which is in the national macro-control when the common goal." Economist Wang Xiaoguang told this reporter that, except in very extreme instability of the time, Macro-control is necessary to use a single goal.
     
In his eyes, 9% of the GDP growth is the policy needs fine-tuning the beginning, "This is the year in sight." He suggested, therefore, the policy is "Do not move."
     
On the other hand, to contain inflation, the United States National Bureau of Economic Research Fellow, Columbia University Professor Jin Wei is still on the same day to the annual meeting of newspaper reporters that "the central bank to contain inflation depends on the effectiveness of the policy, which requires the exchange rate system reform . "
     
With the adjustment of energy prices, PPI, as well as the rising trend of inflation added another variable. "I think the rebound in inflation pressure in the transmission of the PPI, but a lot will not." Tsinghua University Li Daokui to judge the case on the grounds that food prices for very large contribution to the CPI.
     
However, according to a recent central bank research department said, CPI rebounded in the second half of the possibility is very great. The central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, the recent remarks by the market as "a tightening of monetary tightening in the second half of the expected" rate hike is getting stronger flavor.
     
In the interview, Fan-Zhang Huang and Wang Xiaoguang agree that the "economic adjustment, changes in exchange rates, monetary tightening of labor-intensive export-oriented industries most affected."
     
In view of this, Wang Xiaoguang suggested that some techniques can also be on the employment contribution to the larger industry, "the real way out is to lower the cost of the transfer of the Midwest and on to policy support," and for those with low technology content, high-energy Pollution of the enterprise, "out on the out."
     
The National Bureau of Economic Research Fellow, Harvard University Professor Gita Gopinath also told reporters that global inflation will continue at least for more than two years, "China's economic slowdown is natural."
     
She suggested that China's long-term economic development, should enhance investment in human capital and enhance their skills and maintain the advantages of manufacturing and service industries to develop.